A lot of people have been saying that the markets will go lower if Sen. Barack Obama is elected President because there are concerns that his policies will be detrimental to the economy, but who ends up occupying the Oval Office may not matter as much as some think.
For one thing, presidents often govern more to the center than they campaign – and sometimes even cross over in order to prove their chops. Democrat Bill Clinton pared welfare rolls, while Republican George W. Bush presided over a massive expansion of Medicare.
It’s not only how presidents decide to govern – it often comes down to what they can actually do. Clinton wanted to revamp the health-care system, but was unable to do so, despite having Democratic control on Congress to help him. (That effort, of course, helped propel Republicans into control in the 1994 Contract With America sweep.)
Likewise, a President McCain might feel he’d have to win over discontented Democrats with more liberal and dovish policies, while a President Obama might prove his “reach-across-the-aisle” mettle with more hawkish and conservative policies.
Statistics have been bandied about that say markets perform best under Democratic presidents with Republican Congresses. And both sides of the debate have arguments for why tax cuts help, or tax cuts hurt, when it comes to the markets and the economy.
In fact, George W. Bush, who was perceived as very market-friendly, is likely to end his term with the Dow more than 10% lower than when he started, while under Clinton, the Dow enjoyed a gain of 226%.
But what’s going on in the economy is really what affects the markets, and it’s an open secret that presidents get blamed for poor economies, while in reality being able to do very little to make them better.
My personal guess is that, with all the talk of Obama’s strong prospects pulling down the market, there may actually have been a bit of a decline because of speculators. But the adage “buy on the rumor, sell on the news,” could work inversely as well -- “sell on the rumor, buy on the news.”
Also, markets dislike uncertainty -- and resolving the uncertainty could contribute to a bid higher.
In the end, who knows -- but making personal, long-term investments based on who’s the next occupant of the White House could be the worst decision of all.
To those of you who think that Barack Obama is a Marxist, or socialist, I have to question what your concept of Marxism is. How profoundly ridiculous and ill informed these opinions are, and I can never understand why some Americans use the term as a generic term of abuse as expressed by the truly appalling Ann Coulter and her ilk. I expect that Obama will move to the right on most issues, this being an almost universal phenomenon when liberals,or left wingers as we British would see it,are elected into office. Personally I truly hope that he does seriously impact on the huge poverty levels in what is one of the most unequal countries in the world.It is an utter disgrace ansd fills me with sorrow,as it should any human being with concern for humanity. Furthermore, In look with eagerness to see how he and his administration will adopt a more co-operative relationship with the rest of the world, and a more reasonable approach to ending the sufferings and injustice daily experienced by the Palestinian people in particular.
Now that the Government of the People, By the People and For the People has screwed me and has cost me over half of my life savings that puts me in the bracket with all the folks with their hands out to Obama. I think I'll put my hand out too. My Daddy used to tell me that the more money you handle the more that's sure to stick to you. So here I am with both hands out!!
William Ressegue
Palmdale, Ca
The Harvard / Yale Swine who rule the market? I'm sorry where did your current president go? If you want to critisize old money and the Ivy League, take a good look at your own party.
Do you think Sarah Palin's Journalism degree from 5 different no - name institutions is going to be the cure?
I do worry about the total single - party takeover that is about to happen - but if the republicans in the house and senate had thought independantly instead of being herded to Bush's side, this wouldn't be happening. The Republican Party used to stand for something honorable, whether it represented your views or not. Bush has totally changed that. As a democrat, I sincerely hope that the renovation of the Republican Party in the aftermath of this mess will be a regression to the fiscal and moral principles of old. We need balance.
The problem with these kinds of statistics is that tax policy and the economy are impacted over time. Laws that affect taxes take years to effect the economy. Because economics are a multifaceted arena, to measure how the tax laws and government spending affect jobs, savings and spending isn't easy and definately not a science! The best we have done in the past twenty years is when we have cut taxes on people and business and let people have their money to spend without the government deciding how they want to spend it! Clinton inherited a responsible House and Senate dedicated to reducing debt and having a balanced budget. Just like the citizens of this country that are being responsible.
Heaven help us if we have a Democratic House, Senate and President!
The Harvard/Yale swine who rule the market, will I'm sure be pulling for BO...slim chance he'll do anything to uncover the hoax perpertrated on innocent investors who watched their retirement accounts go up in flames....there could be trouble if McCain-Palin win,since they'll be more likely to uncover these thugs who should be indicted, and their billions liquididated......so of course, a BO victory will enable them to continue their disgraceful antics.....
The idea that NObama will reach across the aisle is a fantasy. This guy IS a hard core marxist. His agenda is purely socialist which always leads, yes ALWAYS leads to tyranny. If you want to know how well the DOW, S & P, NASDAQ, will do under NObama, look no further than the USSR's stock indexs pre-1989, and North Korea's stock indexs now.
Oh yah, that's right they don't have stock markets. We should expect no less under Amerika's first tyrannt leader.
Lock and load...
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Lesley Kettles
To those of you who think that Barack Obama is a Marxist, or socialist, I have to question what your concept of Marxism is. How profoundly ridiculous and ill informed these opinions are, and I can never understand why some Americans use the term as a generic term of abuse as expressed by the truly appalling Ann Coulter and her ilk. I expect that Obama will move to the right on most issues, this being an almost universal phenomenon when liberals,or left wingers as we British would see it,are elected into office. Personally I truly hope that he does seriously impact on the huge poverty levels in what is one of the most unequal countries in the world.It is an utter disgrace ansd fills me with sorrow,as it should any human being with concern for humanity. Furthermore, In look with eagerness to see how he and his administration will adopt a more co-operative relationship with the rest of the world, and a more reasonable approach to ending the sufferings and injustice daily experienced by the Palestinian people in particular.
William Ressegue
Now that the Government of the People, By the People and For the People has screwed me and has cost me over half of my life savings that puts me in the bracket with all the folks with their hands out to Obama. I think I'll put my hand out too. My Daddy used to tell me that the more money you handle the more that's sure to stick to you. So here I am with both hands out!! William Ressegue Palmdale, Ca
Gillian
The Harvard / Yale Swine who rule the market? I'm sorry where did your current president go? If you want to critisize old money and the Ivy League, take a good look at your own party. Do you think Sarah Palin's Journalism degree from 5 different no - name institutions is going to be the cure? I do worry about the total single - party takeover that is about to happen - but if the republicans in the house and senate had thought independantly instead of being herded to Bush's side, this wouldn't be happening. The Republican Party used to stand for something honorable, whether it represented your views or not. Bush has totally changed that. As a democrat, I sincerely hope that the renovation of the Republican Party in the aftermath of this mess will be a regression to the fiscal and moral principles of old. We need balance.
Brenda Brink
The problem with these kinds of statistics is that tax policy and the economy are impacted over time. Laws that affect taxes take years to effect the economy. Because economics are a multifaceted arena, to measure how the tax laws and government spending affect jobs, savings and spending isn't easy and definately not a science! The best we have done in the past twenty years is when we have cut taxes on people and business and let people have their money to spend without the government deciding how they want to spend it! Clinton inherited a responsible House and Senate dedicated to reducing debt and having a balanced budget. Just like the citizens of this country that are being responsible. Heaven help us if we have a Democratic House, Senate and President!
TERRENCE
The Harvard/Yale swine who rule the market, will I'm sure be pulling for BO...slim chance he'll do anything to uncover the hoax perpertrated on innocent investors who watched their retirement accounts go up in flames....there could be trouble if McCain-Palin win,since they'll be more likely to uncover these thugs who should be indicted, and their billions liquididated......so of course, a BO victory will enable them to continue their disgraceful antics.....
David in Sarasota
The idea that NObama will reach across the aisle is a fantasy. This guy IS a hard core marxist. His agenda is purely socialist which always leads, yes ALWAYS leads to tyranny. If you want to know how well the DOW, S & P, NASDAQ, will do under NObama, look no further than the USSR's stock indexs pre-1989, and North Korea's stock indexs now. Oh yah, that's right they don't have stock markets. We should expect no less under Amerika's first tyrannt leader. Lock and load...